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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
and satellite wind data indicate that the disturbance located
between Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas continues to lack a
well-defined surface circulation. However, conditions are still
expected to be favorable for the development of a tropical
depression or tropical storm later today or Sunday. The Hurricane
Hunter aircraft will continue to investigate the system this
afternoon.

This disturbance is forecast to move northwestward over or near the
southeastern Bahamas today, and over or near the central Bahamas
Sunday and Sunday night. Heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to
continue over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today. Winds to tropical
storm force and heavy rains are expected to spread over the
southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the central
Bahamas through Sunday night. These rains could cause life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Interests in the Turks and
Caicos and all of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
disturbance, since tropical storm watches and warnings could be
required with little advance notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Brennan


Last updated at: 8/23/2014 3:56:47 PM ET
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